Numerička analiza rasprostiranja naftnog onečišćenja u Jadranskom moru ; Numerička analiza rasprostiranja naftnog onečišćenja u Jadranskom moru / Goran Lončar1*, Eva Ocvirk1, Dalibor Carević1.
Sažetak

Numeričkim modelom praćeno je rasprostiranje naftnog onečišćenja nastalog izljevom iz tankera u kretanju uzduž simetrale jadranskog bazena, od južnojadranske kotline do Trsta. Model, osim konvektivno

disperzivnog rasprostiranja naftnog onečišćenja, (Lagrangeov model diskretnih čestica), uzima u obzir i niz reaktivnih procesa poput emulzifikacije, disolucije, evaporacije i toplinskog balansa između nafte, mora i atmosfere. Polja strujanja u jadranskom bazenu, kao baza za provedbu analiza širenja naftnog onečišćenja, dobivena su sa trodimenzionalnim numeričkim modelom. Za atmosfersko forsiranje modela strujanja korištena su stacionarna polja vjetra tijekom 48 sati iz smjerova SE (1350) i S (1800) brzinom 15 m/s. Provedena je i statistička analiza podataka o brzinama i smjerovima vjetra iz numeričkog atmosferskog modela Aladin za period 1992.-2001. te 2008. godine temeljem koje su definirane i vjerojatnosti nastupa situacija sa analiziranom brzinom i smjerovima vjetra. Strujanje i rasprostiranje onečišćenja praćeni su tijekom četiri perioda od 6 dana u kalendarskoj godini: 1/1-7/1, 1/4-7/4, 1/7-7/7 i 1/10-7/10 kojima su obuhvaćena karakteristična stanja zimske, proljetne, ljetne i jesenske prostorne raspodjele temperatura i saliniteta mora u jadranskom bazenu. Rezultati provedenih analiza pokazuju da su zapadna obala Istre i jugozapadna obala Visa najugroženije po pitanju potencijalnog opterećenja morskog okoliša sa naftnim onečišćenjem u situaciji intenzivnog i kontinuiranog djelovanja vjetra iz S (1800) smjera.; The numerical model was used for monitoring of oil spill transport caused by spillage from a tanker moving along the Adriatic basin bisector, from the South Adriatic Pit to Trieste. The model, along with the convective dispersive transport of spilled oil (Lagrangian particle dispersion model), takes into account oil spill weathering processes such as emulsification, evaporation and heat transfer between oil, sea and atmosphere. The current field in the Adriatic basin as a basis for analysis of transport of oil pollution was obtained by using a 3D numerical model. For atmospheric forcing of the circulation model, stationary wind fields were used during 48 hours from the SE direction (1350) and S direction (1800), with a velocity of 15 m/s. A statistical analysis of wind velocity and direction data was also carried out from the numerical atmospheric model Aladin for the period 1992-2001 and for 2008, based on which the probabilities of occurrence of the situation with the analyzed wind velocity and direction were defined. The circulation and transport of pollution were monitored during four 6-day periods in the calendar year: 1/1-7/1, 1/4-7/4, 1/7-7/7 and 1/10-7/10, which included characteristic winter, spring, summer and autumn spatial distribution of

temperatures and salinity of the sea in the Adriatic basin.

The results of conducted analyses indicate that the western coast of Istria and south-western coast of the island Vis are the most endangered with regards to potential oil pollution of the marine environment under conditions of intensive, continuous winds from the S (1800) direction.